COVID-19. Scenarios of a superfluous crisis

PurposeThis study aims to highlight the critical role case fatality rates (CFR) have played in the emergence and the management of particularly the early phases of the current coronavirus crisis.Design/methodology/approachThe study presents a contrastive map of CFR for the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and influenza (H1N1 and H2N2).FindingsThe mapped data shows that current CFR of SARS-CoV-2 are considerably lower than, or similar to those, of hospitalised patients in the UK, Spain, Germany or international samples. The authors therefore infer a possible risk that the virulence of the coronavirus is considerably overestimated because of sampling biases, and that increased testing might reduce the general CFR of SARS-CoV-2 to rates similar to, or lower than, of the common seasonal influenza.Originality/valueThis study concludes that governments, health corporations and health researchers must prepare for scenarios in which the affected populations cease to believe in the statistical foundations of the current coronavirus crisis and interventions.

Global COVID-19 case fatality rates influenced by inequalities in human development and vaccination rates.

Aim: COVID-19 has exerted distress on virtually every aspect of human life with disproportionate mortality burdens on older individuals and those with underlying medical conditions. Variations in COVID-19 incidence and case fatality rates (CFRs) across countries have incited a growing research interest regarding the effect of social factors on COVID-19 case-loads and fatality rates. We investigated the effect of population median age, inequalities in human development, healthcare capacity, and pandemic mitigation indicators on country-specific COVID-19 CFRs across countries and regions. Subject and methods: Using population secondary data from multiple sources, we conducted a cross-sectional study and used regional analysis to compare regional differences in COVID-19 CFRs as influenced by the selected indicators. Results: The analysis revealed wide variations in COVID-19 CFRs and the selected indicators across countries and regions. Mean CFR was highest for South America at 1.973% (± 0.742) and lowest for Oceania at 0.264% (± 0.107), while the Africa sub-region recorded the lowest scores for pandemic preparedness, vaccination rate, and other indicators. Population Median Age [0.073 (0.033 0.113)], Vaccination Rate [-3.3389 (-5.570.033 -1.208)], and Inequality-Adjusted Human Development Index (IHDI) [-0.014 (-0.023 -0.004)] emerged as statistically significant predictors of COVID-19 CFR, with directions indicating increasing Population Median Age, higher inequalities in human development and low vaccination rate are predictive of higher fatalities from COVID-19. Conclusion: Regional differences in COVID-19 CFR may be influenced by underlying differences in sociodemographic and pandemic mitigation indicators. Populations with wide social inequalities, increased population Median Age and low vaccination rates are more likely to suffer higher fatalities from COVID-19.

Effects of the enhanced public health intervention during the COVID-19 epidemic on respiratory and gastrointestinal infectious diseases in China.

The public health interventions to mitigate coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) could also potentially reduce the global activity of influenza. However, this strategy's impact on other common infectious diseases is unknown. We collected data of 10 respiratory infectious (RI) diseases, influenza-like illnesses (ILIs), and seven gastrointestinal infectious (GI) diseases during 2015-2020 in China and applied two proportional tests to check the differences in the yearly incidence and mortality, and case-fatality rates (CFRs) over the years 2015-2020. The results showed that the overall RI activity decreased by 7.47%, from 181.64 in 2015-2019 to 168.08 per 100 000 in 2020 (p < 0.001); however, the incidence of influenza was seen to have a 16.08% escalation (p < 0.001). In contrast, the average weekly ILI percentage and positive influenza virus rate decreased by 6.25% and 61.94%, respectively, in 2020 compared to the previous 5 years (all p < 0.001). The overall incidence of GI decreased by 45.28%, from 253.73 in 2015-2019 to 138.84 in 2020 per 100 000 (p < 0.001), and with the greatest decline seen in hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) (64.66%; p < 0.001). The mortality and CFRs from RI increased by 128.49% and 146.95%, respectively, in 2020, compared to 2015-2019 (p < 0.001). However, the mortality rates and CFRs of seven GI decreased by 70.56% and 46.12%, respectively (p < 0.001). In conclusion, China's COVID-19 elimination/containment strategy is very effective in reducing the incidence rates of RI and GI, and ILI activity, as well as the mortality and CFRs of GI diseases.

Examining the Relationship Between Hospital-Community Partnerships and COVID-19 Case-Fatality Rates.

Abtract During the COVID-19 pandemic, hospitals across the United States were tasked to develop partnerships with other hospitals and community organizations to overcome the unexpected challenges. The aim of this study is to examine COVID-19 case-fatality rates and explore their relationship with hospital-community partnerships. This study employed a cross-sectional design using a multilevel generalized linear model with a Poisson regression distribution and publicly available COVID-19 mortality data from February to October 2020 across 2526 hospital service areas (HSAs). HSAs with a greater number of partnerships were found to have a reduced risk of higher case-fatality rates than those with fewer health system partnerships. The findings indicated the need for greater cooperation between individual health care systems, state and local governments, and community programs for better outcomes in the ongoing and evolving COVID-19 pandemic, and to be better prepared for future pandemics or large-scale public health crises. This study provides the necessary insights for policy makers, hospital administrators, and public health leaders to understand the critical importance of community partnerships and their influence on reducing the COVID-19 case-fatality rate, as well as their potential effects on improving the health of vulnerable populations as a means to achieve the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's goal of achieving health equity. This research illustrates the need for further inquiries into the importance of these health care partnerships for positive health care outcomes.

Global Temporal Patterns of Age Group and Sex Distributions of COVID-19.

Since the beginning of 2020, COVID-19 has been the biggest public health crisis in the world. To help develop appropriate public health measures and deploy corresponding resources, many governments have been actively tracking COVID-19 in real time within their jurisdictions. However, one of the key unresolved issues is whether COVID-19 was distributed differently among different age groups and between the two sexes in the ongoing pandemic. The objectives of this study were to use publicly available data to investigate the relative distributions of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths among age groups and between the sexes throughout 2020; and to analyze temporal changes in the relative frequencies of COVID-19 for each age group and each sex. Fifteen countries reported age group and/or sex data of patients with COVID-19. Our analyses revealed that different age groups and sexes were distributed differently in COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. However, there were differences among countries in both their age group and sex distributions. Though there was no consistent temporal change across all countries for any age group or either sex in COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, several countries showed statistically significant patterns. We discuss the potential mechanisms for these observations, the limitations of this study, and the implications of our results on the management of this ongoing pandemic.

High health expenditures and low exposure of population to air pollution as critical factors that can reduce fatality rate in COVID-19 pandemic crisis: a global analysis.

One of the problems hardly clarified in Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic crisis is to identify factors associated with a lower mortality of COVID-19 between countries to design strategies to cope with future pandemics in society. The study here confronts this problem by developing a global analysis based on more than 160 countries. This paper proposes that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, healthcare spending and air pollution of nations are critical factors associated with fatality rate of COVID-19. The statistical evidence seems in general to support that countries with a low average COVID-19 fatality rate have high expenditures in health sector >7.5% of GDP, high health expenditures per capita >$2,300 and a lower exposure of population to days exceeding safe levels of particulate matter (PM2.5). Another relevant finding here is that these countries have lower case fatality rates (CFRs) of COVID-19, regardless a higher percentage of population aged more than 65 years. Overall, then, this study finds that an effective and proactive strategy to reduce the negative impact of future pandemics, driven by novel viral agents, has to be based on a planning of enhancement of healthcare sector and of environmental sustainability that can reduce fatality rate of infectious diseases in society.

COVID-19: facts, figures, estimated relationships and analysis.

This study attempts an integrated analysis of the health and economic aspects of COVID-19 that is based on publicly available data from a wide range of data sources. The analysis is done keeping in mind the close interaction between the health and economic shocks of COVID-19. The study combines descriptive and qualitative approaches using figures and graphs with quantitative methods that estimate the plotted relationships and econometric estimation that attempts to explain cross-country variation in COVID-19 incidence, deaths and 'case fatality rates'. The study seeks to answer a set of questions on COVID-19 such as: what are the economic effects of COVID-19, focussing on international inequality and global poverty? How effective was lockdown in curbing COVID-19? What was the effect of lockdown on economic growth? Did the stimulus packages work in delinking the health shocks from the economic ones? Did 'better governed countries' with greater public trust and those with superior health care fare better than others? Did countries that have experienced previous outbreaks such as SARS fare better than those who have not? The study provides mixed messages on the effectiveness of lockdowns in controlling COVID-19. While several countries, especially in the East Asia and Pacific region, have used it quite effectively recording low infection rates going into lockdown and staying low after the lockdown, the two spectacular failures are Brazil and India. In contrast to lockdown, the evidence on the effectiveness of stimulus programs in avoiding recession and promoting growth is unequivocal. The effectiveness is much greater in the case of emerging/developing economies than in the advanced economies. Multilateral institutions such as the World Bank and the IMF need to work out a coordinated strategy to declare immediate debt relief and provide additional liquidity to the poorer economies to help them announce effective stimulus measures. COVID-19 will lead to a large increase in the global pool of those living in 'extreme poverty'. A poignant feature of our results is that while a significant share of health shocks from COVID-19 is borne by the advanced economies, the burden of 'COVID-19 poverty' will almost exclusively fall on two of the poorest regions, namely, Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.

Finding the real COVID-19 case-fatality rates for SAARC countries.

The crude case fatality rate (CFR), because of the calculation method, is the most accurate when the pandemic is over since there is a possibility of the delay between disease onset and outcomes. Adjusted crude CFR measures can better explain the pandemic situation by improving the CFR estimation. However, no study has thoroughly investigated the COVID-19 adjusted CFR of the South Asian Association For Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries. This study estimated both survival interval and underreporting adjusted CFR of COVID-19 for these countries. Moreover, we assessed the crude CFR between genders and across age groups and observed the CFR changes due to the imposition of fees on COVID-19 tests in Bangladesh. Using the daily records up to October 9, we implemented a statistical method to remove the delay between disease onset and outcome bias, and due to asymptomatic or mild symptomatic cases, reporting rates lower than 50% (95% CI: 10%-50%) bias in crude CFR. We found that Afghanistan had the highest CFR, followed by Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Maldives, and Sri Lanka. Our estimated crude CFR varied from 3.708% to 0.290%, survival interval adjusted CFR varied from 3.767% to 0.296% and further underreporting adjusted CFR varied from 1.096% to 0.083%. Furthermore, the crude CFRs for men were significantly higher than that of women in Afghanistan (4.034% vs. 2.992%) and Bangladesh (1.739% vs. 1.337%) whereas the opposite was observed in Maldives (0.284% vs. 0.390%), Nepal (0.006% vs. 0.007%), and Pakistan (2.057% vs. 2.080%). Besides, older age groups had higher risks of death. Moreover, crude CFR increased from 1.261% to 1.572% after imposing the COVID-19 test fees in Bangladesh. Therefore, the authorities of countries with higher CFR should be looking for strategic counsel from the countries with lower CFR to equip themselves with the necessary knowledge to combat the pandemic. Moreover, caution is needed to report the CFR.

Estimating Case Fatality and Case Recovery Rates of COVID-19: is this the right thing to do?

Introduction: Case fatality rates (CFRs) and case recovery rates (CRRs) are frequently used to define health consequences related to specific disease epidemics, including the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aimed to compare various methods and models for calculating CFR and CRR related to COVID-19 based on the global and national data available as of April 2020. Methods: This analytical epidemiologic study was conducted based on detailed data from 210 countries and territories worldwide in April 2020. We used three different formulas to measure CFR and CRR, considering all possible scenarios. Results: We included information for 72 countries with more than 1,000 cases of COVID-19. Overall, using first, second, and third estimation models, the CFR were 6.22%, 21.20%, and 8.67%, respectively; similarly, the CRR was estimated as 23.21%, 78.86%, 32.23%, respectively. We have shown that CFRs vary so much spatially and depend on the estimation method and timing of case reports, likely resulting in overestimation. Conclusions: Even with the more precise method of CFRs estimation, the value is overestimated. Case fatality and recovery rates should not be the only measures used to evaluate disease severity, and the better assessment measures need to be developed as indicators of countries' performance during COVID-19 pandemic.

Real-time naive case fatality rates can reflect timeliness of case confirmation during pandemics.

An objective law was observed that naive case fatality rates (CFRs) of a disease will decrease early and then gradually increase infinitely near the true CFR as time went on during an outbreak. The normal growth of naive CFR was an inherent character rather than indicating the disease was becoming more severe. According to the law, by monitoring real-time naive CFRs, it can help outbreak-controllers know if there were many cases left unconfirmed or undiscovered in the outbreak. We reflected on the use of the naive CFR in the context of COVID-19 outbreaks. The results showed that Hubei Province of China, France and South Korea had cases that were not confirmed in a timely manner during the initial stages of the outbreak. Delayed case confirmations existed for long periods of time in France, Italy, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Spain. Monitoring of real-time naive CFRs could be helpful for decision-makers to identify under-reporting of cases during pandemics.

A sharp increase in the number of COVID-19 cases and case fatality rates after lifting the lockdown in Kurdistan region of Iraq.

With the appearance of first cases of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), strict control measures were implemented in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq to combat the infection. These measures included the closure of schools and universities, the closure of borders and airports, cancellation of public and religious gatherings, and mandatory quarantine for persons returning from traveling abroad. Such measures have played a major role in the control of COVID-19 spread. However, due to social and economic pressures, the government relaxed the lockdown. After relaxing the measures, a sharp increase in the number of patients was noticed. Besides, there was a significant increase in the number of symptomatic patients and the case fatality rate was doubled. In addition, the outbreak and outbreak response led to the loss of trust and a breakdown in relations between the society and local authority. To minimize the consequences for population health, local authority should have a plan that balances between health imperatives and socioeconomic imperatives. Finally, to be successful in controlling the infection, the government must rebuild public trust in the handling of COVID-19 outbreak and compensate people for lost earnings.

Can judgments according to case fatality rate be correct all the time during epidemics? Estimated cases based on CFR in different scenarios and some lessons from early case fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 in Iran.

Background: The new Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was first identified in China in 2019. Case fatality rate (CFR) indicator of the disease is one of the most important indices noticed by experts, policymakers, and managers, based on which daily evaluations and many judgments are made. CFR can change during epidemics. This study aimed to estimate the actual number of COVID-19 cases in Iran and to calculate the early CFR for the disease based on official statistics. Methods: This was a descriptive study whose data were obtained from the website of the Ministry of Health and Medical Education of Iran from February 20, 2020 until March 26, 2020. CFR has been obtained by dividing the total number of deaths by the total number of confirmed cases at one point in time. In this study, the actual number of COVID-19 cases in Iran was estimated based on the mortality model in 4 scenarios. Excel 2013 software was used to analyze the data. Results: According to the findings of this study, In Iran, until March 26, 2020, a total of 27 017 people have been infected by COVID-19 and 2077 died of it. However, CFR indicator had a descending trend in Iran: 100%, 18.6%, 8.8%, 3.3%, 6.9%, and 7.7% on days 1, 5, 10, 20, 30, and 35, respectively. The actual number of COVID-19 cases in Iran was estimated to be 4 789 454, 2 873 673, 1 436 836, and 718418 as of March 26, 2020 according to the 4 scenarios, respectively. Conclusion: In emerging epidemics, CFR indicator must not be used as a basis to judge the performance of a health system unless that epidemic condition has been clarified. Moreover, it is suggested that in the outbreak of an epidemic, specifically emerging diseases, CFR must not be the base of judgment. Making judgments, specifically in the outbreak of emerging epidemics, based on fatality rate can lead to information bias. It is also possible to estimate the total number of patients based on the CFR in circumstances where little information is available on the disease.

Epidemiology of the 2020 Pandemic of COVID-19 in the State of Texas: The First Month of Community Spread.

The pandemic of novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) is currently spreading rapidly across the United States. We provide a comprehensive overview of COVID-19 epidemiology across the state of Texas, which includes vast rural & vulnerable communities that may be disproportionately impacted by the spread of this new disease. All 254 Texas counties were included in this study. We examined the geographic variation of COVID-19 from March 1 through April 8, 2020 by extracting data on incidence and case fatality from various national and state datasets. We contrasted incidence and case fatality rates by county-level demographic and healthcare resource factors. Counties which are part of metropolitan regions, such as Harris and Dallas, experienced the highest total number of confirmed cases. However, the highest incidence rates per 100,000 population were in found in counties of Donley (353.5), Castro (136.4), Matagorda (114.4) and Galveston (93.4). Among counties with greater than 10 cases, the highest CFR were observed in counties of Comal (10.3%), Hockley (10%), Hood (10%), and Castro (9.1%). Counties with the highest CFR (> 10%) had a higher proportion of non-Hispanic Black residents, adults aged 65 and older, and adults smoking, but lower number of ICU beds per 100,000 population, and number of primary care physicians per 1000 population. Although the urban areas of Texas account for the majority of COVID-19 cases, the higher case-fatality rates and low health care capacity in rural areas need attention.

Cross-Country Comparison of Case Fatality Rates of COVID-19/SARS-COV-2.

OBJECTIVES: Case fatality rates (CFR) and recovery rates are important readouts during epidemics and pandemics. In this article, an international analysis was performed on the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. METHODS: Data were retrieved from accurate databases according to the user's guide of data sources for patient registries, CFR and recovery rates were calculated for each country. A comparison of CFR between countries with total cases ≥ 1,000 was observed for 12th and 23rd March. RESULTS: Italy's CFR was the highest of all countries studied for both time points (12th March, 6.22% versus 23rd March, 9.26%). The data showed that even though Italy was the only European country reported on 12rd March, Spain and France had the highest CFR of 6.16 and 4.21%, respectively, on 23rd March, which was strikingly higher than the overall CFR of 3.61%. CONCLUSION: Obtaining detailed and accurate medical history from COVID-19 patients, and analyzing CFR alongside the recovery rate, may enable the identification of the highest risk areas so that efficient medical care may be provided. This may lead to the development of point-of-care tools to help clinicians in stratifying patients based on possible requirements in the level of care, to increase the probabilities of survival from COVID-19 disease.

As COVID-19 cases, deaths and fatality rates surge in Italy, underlying causes require investigation.

COVID-19 case fatalities surged during the month of March 2020 in Italy, reaching over 10,000 by 28 March 2020. This number exceeds the number of fatalities in China (3,301) recorded from January to March, even though the number of diagnosed cases was similar (85,000 Italy vs. 80,000 China). Case Fatality Rates (CFR) could be somewhat unreliable because the estimation of total case numbers is limited by several factors, including insufficient testing and limitations in test kits and materials, such as NP swabs and PPE for testers. Sero prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies may help in more accurate estimations of the total number of cases. Nevertheless, the disparity in the differences in the total number of fatalities between Italy and China suggests investigation into several factors, such as demographics, sociological interactions, availability of medical equipment (ICU beds and PPE), variants in immune proteins (e.g., HLA, IFNs), past immunity to related CoVs, and mutations in SARS-CoV-2, could impact survival of severe COVID-19 illness survival and the number of case fatalities.

Similarity in Case Fatality Rates (CFR) of COVID-19/SARS-COV-2 in Italy and China.

As of 28 February 2020, Italy had 888 cases of SARS-CoV-2 infections, with most cases in Northern Italy in the Lombardia and Veneto regions. Travel-related cases were the main source of COVID-19 cases during the early stages of the current epidemic in Italy. The month of February, however, has been dominated by two large clusters of outbreaks in Northern Italy, south of Milan, with mainly local transmission the source of infections. Contact tracing has failed to identify patient zero in one of the outbreaks. As of 28 February 2020, twenty-one cases of COVID-19 have died. Comparison between case fatality rates in China and Italy are identical at 2.3. Additionally, deaths are similar in both countries with fatalities in mostly the elderly with known comorbidities. It will be important to develop point-of-care devices to aid clinicians in stratifying elderly patients as early as possible to determine the potential level of care they will require to improve their chances of survival from COVID-19 disease.